Most offers in our corner of the marketing universe suggest there’s a ‘right way’ (or ‘best way’) to get results. For example:
- ‘Perfect’ webinar funnels …
- Low-cost ‘tripwires’ followed by an upsell to a core offer …
- An endless variety of launch models …
- Quiz funnels …
- And the list goes on and on …
The sales pitch is always the same.
Just follow the blueprint or copy the template, and you’ll get the same results (or better) than the ‘guru’ selling the course.
But here’s the problem with this type of thinking …
In our combined four-decades of digital marketing experience, we’ve never seen a causal relationship between any specific methodology and success.
Read that sentence again.
We’re not suggesting that webinars, tripwires, launches, and quiz funnels don’t work. What we’re saying is they’re not the reason an offer succeeds.
What about all the glowing testimonials? …
The raving fans? …
The various masterminds with seven, eight, and nine-figure business owners who swear that they are successful because of the model they used or the guru they followed? …
Are those fake?
Absolutely not (as far as we know).
But they’re examples of something called ‘survivorship bias’ …
This phenomenon happens when we only look at people who have succeeded (i.e., ‘survived’) to determine if something works, instead of the entire population.
For example, if Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Mark Cuban, Elon Musk, and Jeff Bezos each meditate every morning, can we safely assume that meditation will increase your odds of becoming a billionaire?
Sadly, no, because the overwhelming majority of meditators aren’t also billionaires. (We can’t draw broad conclusions without looking at the entire group of meditators, not just those who have become billionaires.)
So how do we overcome these problems?
We have to stop thinking in absolutes, and instead, start thinking in probabilities.
Instead of looking for a perfect method, exactly the right software, or the latest-and-greatest tactics (or tools), we can choose principles that are more likely to create the results we want vs. other potential options.
The power in thinking probabilistically is that it compounds one decision at a time.
Every aspect of your business — awareness, engagement, and conversion — has opportunities to stack the deck in your favor with decisions large and small.
There are no ‘magic bullet’ methods that guarantee success, which means we need to do the work every day, in every decision we make, to tilt the odds of success more in our favor.
Over time, the impact of those seemingly small decisions is overwhelming, and success becomes inevitable.
NEXT: FO’UNDATIONS